7 Experts on AI and Data in Foreign Policy
The Foreign Service Journal dives deep into the future of diplomacy
Some of you may know that I serve on the editorial board of the Foreign Service Journal. With a print and online circulation of 18,000, the century-old FSJ is the flagship magazine for diplomats, one that offers a unique and vital voice on American foreign policy. (I love working with prospective authors, so please reach out if you have an idea for a submission.)
I am very proud to have organized an entire edition of the journal dedicated to the future of diplomacy, especially on data and AI. What makes this collection of seven articles so unique is the authors’ credentials: three active Foreign Service Officers, one former FSO (me), two Civil Servants, and a CEO of an AI company.
First up, my article introduces the edition and asks: Can the State Department integrate promising new technology without undermining the essential human aspects of diplomacy? As you know, I’m a big advocate for culture change in diplomacy. Yet, in this article, I spell out four "essentially human tasks" of diplomacy that must not be ignored by reformers. As always, I’d love to hear what you think I got wrong.
The second article is from the Director of the innovative Public Diplomacy office of Policy Planning and Resources, Paul Kruchoski, who is spearheading some of the most interesting and forward-leaning work at the Department. His article is a MUST READ. He explains that "making AI work at State requires challenging the culture that underlies the department’s siloed structure."
The third article is from Paula Osborn, who was just appointed as the Deputy Chief Data and AI Office at State following her success in leading the data program at the Bureau of International Organizations. She offers an excellent and illuminating case study of data and AI adoption in her old office, including a number of opportunities and challenges for effective modernization.
The fourth article is from Foreign Service Officer Zed Tarar. He offers a primer on AI for policy professionals, addressing some fundamental questions, including: How to think about AI? Is AI a national security threat? and, Are global AI rules necessary? This article was particularly fun for me to help edit because Zed and I served together in Karachi over a decade ago, and I recall at least a few late nights debating the modernization of diplomacy.
The fifth article in the edition is from Evanna Hu, a CEO of an AI/ML company, and a fellow at prominent think tank. She predicts that "AI will change our social contract." She makes a powerful case that the State Department to exercise leadership in this domain and help develop a vision of how AI will be integrated into our democratic society, both domestically and internationally.
The sixth article is from another FSO, Eric Bernau, who develops a recommendation for an algorithm that would improve the job assignment process by effectively match demonstrated skills with job requirements. As you know, thousands of FSOs rotate to new assignments every year, but the process is quite messy and ad hoc.
Finally, FSO Darrow Godeski Merton's submission took second place in the annual writing contest. He discusses three big ideas for reforming the State Department, including the potential for AI to be a force multiplier at the State Department.
As I conclude in my introductory article for the issue:
One of the strengths in this set of articles is the authors’ eagerness to experiment and to learn from successes and failures along the way. Ultimately, any new approach in diplomacy must be judged by its ability to help policymakers better understand the world, select policy options more likely to achieve their goals, and support more effective foreign policy. Any new tool or approach must empower—not dampen—our best human impulses.
The future of diplomacy is deeply uncertain. Some believe emerging technologies like AI can usher in an unprecedented age of peace and prosperity. Others fear that new technology poses an existential threat to our species and must be contained.
No matter what the future holds, the United States—and everyone on this planet affected by our actions—deserves the best possible State Department. Judging by the articles in the following pages, I am optimistic about its future.