The Art of Foreign Policy – and the Limits of Science
Some people get nervous about the idea of more scientific forms of expertise in foreign policy. Have no fear! Let's delve into four areas where foreign policy must remain an artistic endeavor.
I’ve been writing for years about the science of expertise in foreign policy. This began with my organization’s cornerstone report from 2022, entitled “Less Art, More Science,” which has become an unofficial slogan for fp21. But our intention has never been to eliminate art from foreign policy. Instead, our mission is to demonstrate that foreign policy requires both art and science — and to find the proper balance between the two.
I spend most of my energy developing ideas to advance the science of foreign policy, but I thought it would be a useful exercise to flesh out and explain what many senior leaders call “the art of foreign policy.”
International affairs is an intricate tapestry woven from history, culture, and power politics. Navigating this environment requires cold, hard calculations. But it also requires a strong moral compass, creativity, a keen sense of politics, and a knack for building trusted relationships across cultures.
Just as artists interpret the world through idiosyncratic perspectives, skilled policymakers must translate their nuanced view of reality into actionable strategies.
Let's delve deeper into four key areas where the art of foreign policy must shine bright:
1. Considering Morals: A masterpiece reflects not just the artist's skill, but their vision and values. Foreign policy fundamentally requires moral considerations. Policy practitioners must balance light and shadow, carefully navigating the ethical complexities of international relations. This may involve recognizing the human cost of decisions, weighing the distributive consequences across different populations, and striving for solutions that uphold core values even in the face of trade-offs. This requires moral clarity, empathy for the diverse stakeholders involved, and the courage to make difficult choices.
2. Defining National Interests: Every masterpiece starts with a vision. In foreign policy, this vision begins with defining one’s national interests. This requires a deep understanding of our country’s culture, ethics, and politics. National interests emerge from a complex mosaic of security, economic, and normative priorities. These priorities constantly shift as our society evolves. Being a good leader in a democracy means listening to the public as much as to one’s own intuition. Just as there’s no objectively “correct” morals, there’s no way to define national interests objectively. Policymakers must be able to identify these priorities, understand their interrelationships, and prioritize them strategically. They must, like artists, make informed decisions about where to apply fresh paint, and which brushstrokes to use.
3. Setting Goals: The world is not a coloring book with pre-defined lines. Just as an artist explores an infinite variety of colors, mediums, and forms, foreign policy demands creative solutions. Studying the masters helps improve one’s craft, but rarely does the world invite photocopied solutions. In a constantly evolving global landscape, one must constantly think outside of the box. This requires intellectual agility, the courage to challenge orthodoxy, and the willingness to embrace the unexpected. “Scenario analysis,” explains the scholar Naazneen Barma, “constitutes the art of juxtaposing current trends in unexpected combinations in order to articulate surprising and yet plausible futures, often referred to as ‘alternative worlds.” This creative, artistic act lies at the heart of policymaking.
4. Interpersonal Skills: At its core, foreign policy is about people. There is an art to building relationships, forging alliances, and establishing trust and credibility. The foreign policy practitioner must be a skilled communicator, and their words must be carefully chosen to bridge cultural divides — whether foreign or domestic. They must possess a deep empathy allies and opponents alike, and the ability to appreciate the nuances of human emotions and motivations. This requires emotional intelligence, cultural sensitivity, and the ability to build genuine connections across diverse cultures and perspectives. It demands the adaptability of a chameleon, seamlessly shifting communication styles to resonate with different audiences. One must also be a good manager, which draws upon a similar set of interpersonal skills.
With these four brushstrokes, practitioners can master the art of foreign policy, shaping the international landscape with creativity, empathy, and a deep understanding of human relationships. Art is the foundation of foreign policy.
Art and Science Must Work Together
Yet there’s great risk when artistry is allowed to crowd out the science of foreign policy. Artistry devoid of scientific technique leads to policies based on wishful thinking and personal biases, lacking the foundation of rigorous analysis and realistic planning. This results in wasted resources and ineffective strategies.
For instance, it was widely agreed that Saddam Hussein was a despotic leader and a scourge on his people. Many believed that it was in the US national interest to remove him from power. The implications of beliefs, however, are more empirical questions: How large an invading army would it take to overthrow him? What resources would it require to rebuild Iraq?
Whereas the art of foreign policy is creative, scientific approaches discipline policymakers to evaluate the implications of their worldview objectively, design implementation plans likely to achieve their goals, and accumulate skill over time by continually learning from their successes and failures. Brilliant ideas are meaningless without realistic plans to achieve results. It is for these reasons that we so passionately advocate that foreign policy must be evidence-based.
Imagine an architect designing a masterpiece. They possess technical expertise in engineering and structure and wield a deep understanding of the properties of the materials they work with (science). But they also infuse their creation with creativity, emotion, and a unique vision for how their space will be experienced (art). Similarly, effective foreign policy requires both the rigor of science and the human touch of art.
By recognizing the complementary roles of art and science and harnessing them in tandem, policymakers can create effective strategies that aspire to our highest ideals and are at the same time grounded in hard reality. This is the key to navigating the complex and ever-changing landscape of international relations and building a more just, secure, and prosperous future for all.