The (in)Definitive Reading List for Foreign Policy Expertise

What knowledge should serve as a necessary foundation for policymakers?

The Foreign Policy Expertise summer reading pile.

My previous post laying out a vision for a shared curriculum for foreign policy expertise received a flood of feedback. I’d categorize most of the suggestions I received into the humanities bucket: history of US foreign policy, memoir, and contemporary policy issues. This reflects the many syllabi I reviewed from university courses in US foreign policy. (I posted the full list of reader’s recommendations at the bottom of this post)

My suggested reading list departs from the norm in that I seem to be much more focused on the skills a policymaker will require. It thus includes a lot more social science, method, and political theory (including ethics). This may be a result of my unique experience: After more than a decade of government service, I stepped away from my career as a US Foreign Service Officer and enrolled in a doctoral program in political science. I was focused on exploring what it means to be an expert in foreign policy (if you can’t tell from this newsletter, I’m a little obsessed with the topic). I took classes and read widely in political science, statistics, history, sociology, anthropology, philosophy, psychology, public administration, business, ethics, and more. My views are thus informed not only by my experience working inside the US government, but also studying it from the outside.

I’m convinced that professionalizing foreign policy requires the industry to invest in social science in addition to the humanities. I know some of you disagree. As always, I’m eager for constructive criticism here. But I hope you nevertheless take this list as an opportunity to stress-test some of your views. Try reading a couple of books in a new category before dismissing it! I try to remind myself that nobody has a monopoly on wisdom, especially me.

Using History

History and historical data is the starting point for any discussion of foreign policy. Learning about the method by which historiography is conducted helps us understand the strengths and limits of historical research and how it can be used to make better foreign policy.

1. Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision Makers, Richard Neustadt and Earnest May

2. Thinking About History, Sarah Maza

3. Analogies at War, Yuen Foong Khong

History of US Foreign Policy

There are more books on the history of US foreign policy (and the countries with which we interact) than one could read in 100 lifetimes. Here are a handful to get one started. I should note that among the dozens of books recommended to me in this category, not a single one was written by a woman. This should serve as a potent reminder that our views of history are inextricably tied to power and identity.

1. Twentieth Century: The History of the World, 1901 to 2000, J.M. Roberts

2. America in the World: A History of U.S. Diplomacy and Foreign Policy, Robert Zoellick

3. A Concise History of U.S. Foreign Policy, Joyce Kaufman

4. From Colony to Superpower, George Herring

5. Diplomacy, Sir Harold Nicolson

6. American Diplomacy 1900-1950, by George Kennan

7. Diplomacy, Henry Kissinger

8. A Short History, Department of State Historian’s Office

Using Science and Evidence

The scientific method is a powerful approach to improve the quality of the evidence we produce. This category emphasizes the value of causal logic and the four hurdles necessary to assume causation, and it also teaches us how to leverage comparison and counterfactual explanations. All policy decisions can be seen as implicit hypotheses about causation — causation and hypothesis testing help us distinguish between truth and fiction. This list features both quant and qual.

1. The Fundamentals of Social Science Research, Kellstead, Whitten, Tuch

2. Case Study and Theory Development in the Social Sciences, George and Bennett

3. Foreign Policy Should be Evidence Based, Spokojny and Scherer

Human Judgment and Psychology

Great decision-makers understand the conditions under which intuitive expertise forms, and appreciate the way that misleading biases accrue in human judgment.

1. Conditions for Intuitive Expertise: A Failure to Disagree, Kahneman and Klein

2. Perception and Misperception in International Politics, Robert Jervis

3. Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman

4. The Behaviorist Revolution in International Relations, Hafner-Burton, et. al.

5. Hawkish Biases and Group Decision Making, Kurtzer, et. al.

6. Political Psychology in International Relations, Kertzer and Tingley

Analytical Methods

The intelligence community invests a great deal in propagating strong analytical standards, but the foreign policy community lacks similar training or standards. This is a dangerous state of affairs. This provides fertile soil for policymakers to disregard strong analytical insights if they don’t comply with their preexisting beliefs or political goals.

1. A Practical Guide For Policy Analysis: The Eightfold Path To More Effective Problem Solving, Eugene Bardach

2. Intelligence Community Analytical Standards, Intelligence Community Directive 203

3. Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy, Mark Lowenthal

4. Bridging the Gap: Theory and Practice in Foreign Policy, Alexander George 

5. Strategic Choice and International Relations, Lake and Powell

6. Designing Social Inquiry, King, Keohane, and Verba

Seeing the Future

Effective policymaking requires seeing into the future. In the corporate world, businesses with strategic forecasting operations or long-term strategies tend to greatly outperform their competition. Unfortunately, the incentives of organizations are often short term, and experts tend to be terrible forecasters. Forecasting and scenario planning tools can help policymakers better prepare for the future and select policy options most likely to succeed in an uncertain world.

1. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Phillip Tetlock

2. “Imagine a World in Which”: Using Scenarios in Political Science, Barma, Durbin, Lorber, Whitlark.

3. Assessing the Accuracy of Geopolitical Forecasts from the US Intelligence Community’s Prediction Market, Goldstein, et. al.

4. Finally, Evidence that Managing for the Long Term Pays Off, Barton, Manika, and Williamson

Strategy and Project Management

Policymakers are great at coming up with good ideas, but are often ill equipped to design and execute strategies and budgets to achieve success. The quality of US foreign policy rests on effective strategy. 

1. Bringing a Method to the Strategy Madness, Jeffrey Meiser

2. US Joint Doctrine Note 1-18: Strategy, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff

3. To Regain Policy Competence: The Software of American Public Problem-Solving, Philip Zelikow

4. Harvard Business Review Project Management Handbook: How to Launch, Lead, and Sponsor Successful Projects, Antonio Nieto Rodriguez

5. Strategy: A History, Lawrence Freedman

6. Doing Agile Right: Transformation Without Chaos, Rigby, Elk, Berez

Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning

Strong organizations learn from today’s successes and failures in order to improve the likelihood of success tomorrow. There are well-developed and tested tools to build a culture of learning. Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) systems generate evidence to allow policymakers to understand the effectiveness of a policy or program from start to finish. This knowledge must also be properly managed and distributed through an organization.

1. Monitoring and Evaluation Training, Chaplowe and Cousins

2. How to Measure Anything, Douglass Hubbard

3. Lean Knowledge Management, Roger Forsgren

Organizational Behavior

Individuals don’t create foreign policy – organizations do. The challenge for policymakers is not simply to learn how to get ahead within the bureaucracy, but to participate in a process that’s greater than the sum of its parts. Understanding the tradeoffs between careerist vs political appointees is particularly important in a system like the State Department.

1. Bureaucratic Politics in Foreign Policy, Halperin and Clapp

2. Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, Graham Allison

3. A Garbage Can Model of Organizational Choice, Cohen, March, and Olsen

4. Bureaucracy, James Q. Wilson

5. Learning while governing: Expertise and accountability in the executive branch, Gailmard and Patty

6. Presidents, Bureaucrats, and Foreign Policy: The Politics of Organizational Reform, I.M. Destler

7. Flawed by Design: The Evolution of the CIA, JCS, and NSC, Amy Zegart

International Relations Theory

We all use mental models to simplify an infinitely complex world. Studying international relations theory helps policymakers understand the structure of the international system and how the parts fit together. There is no “correct” theory of international relations; each approach has strengths and weaknesses.

1. Man, the State, and War, Kenneth Waltz

2. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, John Mearsheimer

3. After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy, Robert Keohane

4. Social Theory of International Politics, Alexander Wendt 

5. International Norm Dynamics and Political Change, Finnemore and Sikkink

6. Rationalist Explanations for War, James Fearon

Special Topics in Foreign Policy (Mid-Level Theory)

Mid Level theory excels in providing generalized patterns of behavior in international politics. The number of topics here are endless. Scholars have studied the effectiveness of virtually any tool of foreign policy one can think of. Just like a policymaker must study the history of the countries in their portfolio, they should also study the effectiveness of the most relevant tools and issues. Below, I sample some leading literature in just a single area I know well: causes and solutions for civil war.

1. Why We Fight: The Roots of War and Paths to Peace, Chris Blattman

2. Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil Wars, Barbara Walter

3. Fostering Peace After Civil War: Commitment Problems and Agreement Design, Mattes and Savun

4. War on Sacred Grounds, Ron Hassner

5. Containing Fear: The Origin and Management of Ethnic Conflict, Lake and Rothchild

6. The Frontlines of Peace: An Insider's Guide to Changing the World, Severine Autesserre

Ethics and Values in US Foreign Policy

Ethics and values must steer choices at every stage of the decision-making process. Our principles help us answer: How do we identify what our society deems a problem? How do we frame the problem? Which problems do we prioritize? How do we handle distributional questions? Scientific approaches can help evaluate the implications of our ethics, but science can’t tell us which values are correct.

1. Twentieth Century Realism, Jack Donnelly

2. A Foreign Policy for the Left, Michael Waltzer

3. Conservative Internationalism, Henry Nau

4. Ethics and International Relations: a Primer, Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs

5. These Truths, Jill Lepore

Public Diplomacy, Communication, and Relationship Building

Resources on communication and relationship building can provide helpful frameworks and common language for a field that depends on communication in order to be effective both internally and externally. (I admit this is a weak category for me — the reader recommendations posted below included a ton more books in this category I’m excited to read!)

1. Getting to Yes: Negotiating Agreement without Giving In, Fisher and Ury

2. How to Win Friends and Influence People, Dale Carnegie

3. On Communication, Cialdini, Morgan, Tannen

4. Several Short Sentences About Writing, Verlyn Klinkenborg

5. The Ugly American, Burdick and Lederer

Key Institutions

Understanding the institutions within which foreign policy is crafted is vital to advancing policy. Much of this knowledge can be learned on the job, but familiarization with the complicated workings of the various cabinet agencies is a useful starting point.

1. National Security Enterprise: Navigating the Labyrinth, George, Rishikof, and Scowcroft

2. The Liberal International Order, Hans Kundnani

3. The Use and Misuse of Economic Tradecraft, Lew and Nephew

4. In the Shadow of the Oval Office, Destler and Daalder

In Conclusion: A Step Toward Improved Policy Expertise

Official endorsement and adoption of a robust curriculum for foreign policy expertise would signal a paradigm shift in the practice of foreign policy. Such a move offers a recipe by which policymakers can upgrade their approach to decision-making and build a more effective institution. Expert decision-making means one can use the best available evidence in our decision-making processes, learn from successes and failures, and actively feed lessons back into the way we recruit, train, and promote a diverse, merit-driven staff. This means that any core curriculum must evolve as the institution continues to learn.

Bonus: I received so many amazing suggestions about books. I compiled and lightly organized the full list of reader recommendations in this Google Doc.

As I mentioned earlier, I hope this a starting point for what I hope will be a deeper conversation about the skills and knowledge necessary to prepare foreign policy practitioners for success. I would love to hear your suggestions about how to improve this reading list.